Archive for September, 2018

h1

TMay hasn’t had front pages like this since she made the fateful decision to call GE2017

Saturday, September 22nd, 2018


Mike Smithson




h1

TMay ends the week extending her satisfaction margin over Corbyn

Friday, September 21st, 2018

The latest numbers in what is by far the longest series of leader ratings in British politics, the satisfied/dissatisfied figures from Ipsos-MORI, are out and show TMay just about holding steady but with a sizeable drop for Corbyn. Fieldwork took place before yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg.

As can be seen both are in negative territory but Corbyn’s on net minus 42% while TMay is at minus 33%. To put that into context – in July 2017 Corbyn was on a net minus 1 while TMay was on minus 25.

What’s really good about these numbers is that the pollster has been asking the same questions in the same manner for nearly five decades so we can make historical comparisons.

    Amongst LAB voters fewer than half, 48%, say they are satisfied with Corbyn compared with 44% saying dissatisfied. This might not fit with the narrative that his supporters try to generate.

By comparison the beleaguered Mrs. May has 56% of CON voters giving her a positive rating with 35% negative.

In all likelihood Corbyn will still be there at the next general election whilst TMay probably won’t.

Mike Smithson




h1

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Chequers is dead, so should Labour offer a ‘people’s vote’?

Friday, September 21st, 2018

As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour’s interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next.

Follow this week’s guests:





h1

While the nation faces huge and historic issues over Brexit Labour gathers in Liverpool to talk about itself

Friday, September 21st, 2018

Today’s Times column by Phillip Collins hits the nail on the head about Labour and its current state.

“..The issues of the hour are historic. Are any of the half-formed answers to the Irish border question at all practicable? Will the strong desire of the European Union 27 to agree a deal quieten the opposition to Mrs May’s besieged plans? Is it really worth risking exit without a deal for the distant and unlikely prize of winning a second referendum? Is there not a danger that thwarting the first referendum would result in civil disobedience? Is that not a democratic outrage? Never mind all of that. Let’s talk about the contemporary criterion for conference motions.

The Labour Party has decided it need not pay attention to the historic turn of events…The Labour leadership isn’t interested in Europe. All it has ever wanted is to take back control of the Labour Party. Which is what the Labour conference will essentially be about. All conversations in the party since Tony Blair left office have been, in one way or another, about which faction is the rightful owner of the party heritage…”

Meanwhile this from the latest polling ought to be worrying the red team.

Mike Smithson




h1

Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets has hardly moved

Thursday, September 20th, 2018

Punters are hanging on to their cash

Given the enormity of what’s happened at the EU Salzburg summit I though it useful to look at reaction across a range of market on the Betfair exchange:

Next UK General Election most seats

It was CON 50% chance to LAB 45% on Betfair 24 hours ago and the position hasn’t moved

UK to leave the EU by 29/03/2019

This was a 63.5% chance 24 hours ago and is now a 62.5% one.

Year of next UK General Election

2019 was a 31% chance 24 hours ago and still is. Favourite remains 2022 at 36%

Theresa May Exit Date

2019 still the 52% favourite and hasn’t moved.

Prime Minister after Theresa May

Johnson remains joint 14% favourite with a Mr. Corbyn.

Mike Smithson




h1

TMay heads back from Salzburg looking more isolated than ever

Thursday, September 20th, 2018

And the time is running out

It is becoming harder and harder to work out how Britain’s exit from the EU will work out. Theresa May looked absolutely furious in post-event press conference and that is understandable given the amount of political capital she has personally invested in the Chequers plan.

Maybe thigs appears so difficult and so bad on both sides that the meeting in November will take on a different tone. Maybe. Maybe it won’t.

Her next major challenge is going to be her conference speech in 3 weeks time and how she copes with that could determine a lot.

What must have been disappointing for her is that there had been some positive indications from Brussels to the Chequers plan and she must have really been hoping for something vaguely positive from these latest meetings.

But Theresa May is a tough one and she’s usually resilient it is just that the current challenge facing her looks insurmountable.

Mike Smithson




h1

How the readership of the main national papers are split on Brexit

Thursday, September 20th, 2018

YouGov have just published a poll which shows how readers of different newspapers are viewing brexit and how they would vote in a new referendum. For some reason the Sun does not appear to be included.

In broad terms the results are what you would expect with Guardian readers being staunchly for Remain while Express ones are for Leave. But there are some surprises. To me the big one is the Daily Telegraph where the split is 45% remain to 55% leave is very different from the strong hard Brexit editorial approach that the paper has been taking four years.

I also like the Daily Mirror figures where the readership is completely split down the middle though I am a bit surprised about the the fact that 30% of Daily Express readers are remainers. That seems on the high side.

The Mail, also, appears to have more Remainers than you would expect. I wonder how they are going to take the new approach being adopted by the pro-Remain new editor.

Mike Smithson




h1

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Where do the Lib Dems go from here?

Wednesday, September 19th, 2018

Keiran Pedley is joined by Mark Pack of the Lib Dem Newswire to discuss this week’s Lib Dem conference. Keiran and Mark discuss how the conference went and where the party goes from here and Mark gives everyone an outside tip on who the next Lib Dem leader might be when Vince Cable steps down.

Listen to the latest episode here:

Follow this week’s guests: