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Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

October 9th, 2018

There’s been more movement on the TMay exit year market on Betfair as seen in the Betdata.io chart.

The 57% that next year is now rated is a record high and reflects the view that she’ll hang on until the UK is out of the EU at the end of March and then she’ll stand aside.

But will she? That she is still in Number 10 today is a remarkable achievement given that last year she took the advice from DDavis and made the fatal decision to call the last election.

Almost every day at the moment we hear of growing pressure on her over Brexit some accompanied by threats to her leadership. She’s still there because there’s no clear view amongst CON MPs about her successor.

I’m not convinced that she intends to go quietly next year. She has said in the past that she wants to lead the party at the next election which means that she’d only go earlier if she was ousted.

Detractors within the party are always making threats which they never follow up – thus weakening their credibility even further. They’ve cried wolf too often to be taken seriously.

Mike Smithson