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Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

October 9th, 2018

The first public surveys since Corbyn’s August Scottish initiative

It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move

Ahead of the SNP conference which is currently going on there have been three new Scotland-only polls – the first since July. All show LAB still in third place north of the border the part of the UK where they were totally dominant. This all changed, of course, the post September 2014 SNP surge following the IndyRef.

In the past two general election the 59 Scottish seats have seen far more turbulence than just about anywhere else in the UK. At GE2015 Scottish LAB went from the 41 seats to just a single MP. There was something of a recovery at GE2017 when the Scottish total move to 7.

    If Labour is to get anywhere near winning most seats at the next general election it has to regain ground in Scotland and given it had so many seats were not so long ago the potential must be there

These are the latest three polls:

Survation Oct 2nd for Sunday Post
CON 26%
LAB 24%
SNP 41%
LD 7%

Panelbase Oct 4th for S Times
CON 27%
LAB 26%
SNP 38%
LD 6%

Survation Oct 5th for SNP
CON 28%
LAB 26%
SNP 37%
LD 6%

At GE2017 the shares were SNP 36.9%, CON 28.6, LAB 27.1, LD 6.8%.

Mike Smithson