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First post-Kavanaugh polling suggest the Democrats are moving up with less than 4 weeks to go

October 10th, 2018

The female-male gap widens

With so many different elections in 50 different states taking place on November 6th it can be hard to discern specific trends. One polling series is the Generic Congressional Vote and the latest numbers we have are in the CNN report overnight and posted above.

The big number is that the survey shows the Democrats with a 13% margin over the Republicans which, even taking into account local variations should be enough for the them to win back control of the House of Representatives.

The Senate, though, could be a different matter and individual key state polling suggests that Trump’s might hold on.

In the betting punters on Betfair make it a 63% chance that the Democrats will win the House which is now some way below the US-based prediction markets. Betfair has it as a 69% chance that the GOP will retain control of the Senate.

The thing to remember is that all seats in the House are up on November 6th but only 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Those at stake this year have been held since 2012 when Obama won his second term and are mostly held by the Democrats.

A big issue is that turnout rates are generally much lower at the midterms than in Presidential races which puts a premium on turnout.

There’s little doubt that last week’s Senate hearing and vote approving the Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination has fired up voters. The question is whether the Blues (Dems) or the Reds (GOP) will benefit more.

In my betting I was laying (betting against) the Republicans holding onto the Senate but cashed that in taking a profit last week. Some more numbers like the CNN data and I might go back in but that is just one poll.

Mike Smithson