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My Beto O’Rourke spread bet that could still be winner even if Ted Cruz is re-elected

November 5th, 2018

The betting format that gives you more options

Regular PBers will know I am very keen on political spread betting simply because this offers far more betting possibilities than are available from standard bookmakers or betting exchanges like Betfair.

This is best illustrated by what’s possible on tomorrow’s Texas senatorial race if you think that the Democrat, Beto will struggle to struggle to win but you think he is going to do very well. The latest polls have the Cruz lead at between 3 and 4%.

One of my bets with SportingIndex is that Cruz will have a vote supremacy over O’Rourke of less than 4.7%. For every percentage point below that I make my stake and that continues with even bigger winnings if the Democrat managed to win. The downside is that if Cruz wins with a margin of 4.7% or more I lose the stated amount for every percentage point that I am out. All calculations are down to one decimal point.

The joy of this bet is that the better Beto does the more I make with, alas, the converse being the case. I also could have a profitable position if he falls short by between 0% and 4.7%

At GE17 I sold Tory seats at the 393 level and they got 318. So I made 75 times my stake level which was my most profitable political bet ever. Spread betting is hugely risky

I also have a spread bet on turnout tomorrow which will be profitable provided it exceeds 43.7%. The higher it is the more I win.

Mike Smithson