One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and one has the Republicans in the lead

November 5th, 2018

Within a few hours Americans start voting in probably the most crucial midterm elections that we’ve seen in modern times. Quite simply these take place after 2 years of Mr Trump’s occupancy of the White House which has had a extraordinary impact on the way government works and how Americans see themselves.

The Democrats are desperate to win at least the House tomorrow as well as gain a clutch of state governorships. They also hope to do well in the Senate races but that prospect seems remote.

But there’s a huge degree of nervousness around in the party which is probably down to the shock of what happened in November 2016 when against what the polls were showing Mr. Trump emerged the victor in the electoral college. This is the main reason why  the normal levels of confidence that people having polling has dropped

One nagging worry has been the consistent series of polls from Rasmmussen which has the Republicans doing substantially better than any of the other surveys. The pollster also has been showing Mr trump in positive territory in its approval ratings.

Could this indeed have been getting this right on the other pollsters getting it wrong? This from Saturday Night Live gives a good sense of how nerves are frayed.

Mike Smithson