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The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

November 6th, 2018

Viewcode once again looks at the detailed data

The midterms are for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 36 out of 50 state Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors and is the successor to a similar article . The following figures were taken between 1am and 4am GMT November 6th 2018

NATIONWIDE GENERIC BALLOT POLLS

A “generic ballot” poll asks the person which party they would prefer to control Congress or would vote for in their district. The website FiveThirtyEight has a page summarizing those polls and the spreadsheet is here. The last six polls so listed are here:

STATE-LEVEL POLLS

Due to time constraints this will not be considered

NUMBER-CRUNCHERS

The United States has analysts and academics who produce their own predictions of the outcomes. Their predictions are complicated by the concept of a “toss-up” or “too close to call” (TCTC): elements which they decline to predict, and by the use of qualifiers such as “Tilt”, “Lean”, “Likely”, etc. A summary of the predictions can be found on the Wikipedia election pages for the Senate and the House. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018)

Senate

Two senators (Angus King and Bernie Sanders)  are Independent but “caucus” (vote) with the Democrats. They are considered to be safe in their seats and are included with the Democrats in the table below. 35 seats are contested (24+2 Democrats, 9 Republicans).

House of Representatives

All 435 seats are up for election. No independents. The Daily Kos site is not clear enough for me to easily extract the data. 538 gives three options (lite, classic, deluxe) and two modes (one by probability, one by district). I have chosen the classic mode.

NATIONWIDE BETS

I looked at five bookies: Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, SportingIndex (Spin), Betway, Coral. Spin were again suspended at the time of inspection. The seats are deduced from the over/under. The Coral and Ladbrokes senate majority odds were deduced from Rep>50 (Rep majority), Rep=50 (no majority) and Rep<50 (Dem majority).  Ladbrokes acquired Coral in 2016 and were themselves acquired by GVC in 2018, which presumably explains why Ladbrokes and Coral odds are identical.

Senate

STATE-LEVEL BETS

Due to time constraints this will not be considered

Viewcode

Viewcode is a statistician who spends too much time commentating below-the-line