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More and more punters are putting their money on a second referendum happening

November 21st, 2018


Betdata.io

I really do like showing betting charts simply to indicate how opinions about a likely outcome change all the time and it’s good to see it in graphic form.

Giving the response so far from parliamentarians to the brexit deal the chances are that this might get voted down by MPs and if so then what? The consequences of no deal have not yet been spelled out to voters but there’s little doubt that ministers are aware.

There’s increasing speculation that if that does happen then maybe Theresa May would back that herself. In any case there is said to be a possible majority of MPs from different parties supporting the idea.

Oxford politics Professor, Stephen Fisher of exit poll fame, has just posted an interesting analysis on his blog under the heading “IN WHICH THERESA MAY CALLS A REFERENDUM DESPITE EXPECTING TO LOSE HER JOB”. He notes:

“.The prime minister has said that a no-deal Brexit would be “a bad outcome for the UK”, and also that she believes, with her “head and heart” and “every fibre of her body”, that the deal is, “in the best interests of our entire United Kingdom.” If this is really how she feels she should want to ask the people to back her deal in a referendum to force parliament’s hand. May has previously ruled out a referendum, but she also ruled out a general election in 2017 and called one anyway.

Even if she does not really feel so strongly in favour of her deal, calling another referendum still looks like it would be the most palatable of the options that would immediately be available. Calling a general election would be much riskier. Resigning would be a dereliction of duty without any obvious indication that any other prime minister would yield a better outcome for her party or the country. She would have no credible argument for trying to unilaterally revoke Article 50: it is not what she wants, it may not work and it would provoke a major legitimacy crisis. If she calls and fails to deliver a referendum at least she will have taken every opportunity to avert a no-deal Brexit.”

Mike Smithson