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After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

November 25th, 2018

The uncertainties remain

I’m taking profits on my TMay surviving 2018 bet because I think there’s just an outside chance that she could quit if the Commons votes against her plan. That would happen before Christmas.

One thing that’s happened during her premiership is that ultimately she’s won just about all the main votes on Brexit. Things might look bleak now but is Labour really going to risk being tarred with having made a no deal exit to actually happen?

There’s a huge difference between the party abstaining and actually voting alongside the DUP and hardline Tory rebels to strike it down. My guess is that Corbyn’s party will abstain.

What we don’t know is how much the “put it to the national in a referendum” argument will resonate. It becomes harder to resist now that we know what leaving actually means.

Mike Smithson