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It’s now down to an evens chance in the betting that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

November 30th, 2018


Chart Betdata.io

 

How is this going to go?

Given the huge uncertainty that  hangs over Theresa May’s Brexit deal it is no wonder that punters are getting more nervous when risking their cash on the market that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year.

Back in October on Betfair the chances of this happening looked much greater and the betting trades that were taking place had this at a 71.4% chance. That’s now hovering about 50%.

Clearly everything has changed dramatically since the publication of the deal and the response to it. We are hearing claims that perhaps 100 Tory MP will rebel on December 11th when the critical vote in the Commons takes place. Given that they’re likely to be joined by almost all the other parties in the house then it is looking very unlikely, at the moment, that this will pass.

But a huge operation is taking place to try to win Tory MP dissidents round to the PM’s assertion that this is just about the best deal that’s possible. Day by day, it seems, another senior Tory cabinet minister makes their views known that they are backing her.

What should be worrying ministers is if an amendment is patched together between the various Commons factions opposed to the deal that manages to gather sufficient support to be adopted when the votes take place.

What happens if Theresa May cannot get her agreement through is unclear. Will she go back to Brussels, agree some cosmetic changes and return it to The Commons? Will it be the trigger for the moves to have a second referendum? Or are we heading for a No Deal and all the consequences at the end of next March?

Also is Mrs May going to survive as PM? Punters make it a 25% chance that she’ll be out this year which sort of assumes that there’ll be a CON MP confidence this side of Christmas.

Mike Smithson