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If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

December 12th, 2018

But could the betting markets have it wrong?

Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May.

So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job.

The last time this procedure was used to try to oust a CON leader, the confidence vote against IDS in October 2003, the Betfair market proved to be a good pointer to what was going to happen. It should be said that voting in that election took place all day and not like this one where it starts at 6 p.m. at night.

I’m going to be out for most of the afternoon and will probably not be posting again till 5 or 6 p.m.

Will what’s been described as the “most sophisticated electorate in the world” surprise us? It might.

Mike Smithson