h1

TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse

December 14th, 2018

The betting money moves against a second referendum

While Mrs May is still in post and the EU are not going to budge on the terms of the deal then it looks as though the two big options remaining are a hard Brexit on March 29th or else a new referendum being announced beforehand.

So far LAB has managed to get away almost scot-free without being really pressed to expand its ambivalent position on what it wants.

Its main focus has been trying to bring down the government rather than seeking to find a solution that’s best for Britain. The political risk of this is taking part of the blame if there is no deal. If that happens Corbyn will struggle to retain those who tactically voted LAB at GE2017 because that was seen as the best route to stopping Brexit.

Pressure will build up as we get closer to the date. Given that Corbyn’s position of wanting to stay in the customs Union is not very much different from the Northern Ireland backstop that causes so many problems within the Conservative Party then you could just see the possibility of movement.

Meanwhile, as the betting suggests, the view that a second referendum might happen is starting to evaporate. Its now a 37% chance on Betfair. Having a second vote goes against so much that Mrs May has said although it might be that this is the one option that would prevent a hard Brexit.

What could change the political environment is if there’s a panic within the financial markets about No Deal and we see the pound collapse even more and other negative market indicators.

So a lot to look forward to in 2019.

Mike Smithson