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As Trump’s troubles mount punters now give him just a 30% chance of being re-elected

December 24th, 2018

Although it is not two years since Trump was inaugurated as President the focus is starting to be placed on WH2020. The next six months should see contenders starting to throw their hats into the ring all building up to the first primaries in little more than a year.

What’s going to be different about the upcoming battles is that the biggest state of all, California, with by far the biggest number of delegates, will now feature in the first phase of the primary campaign. Its primary has been switched from its regular June slot to March 3rd, 2020 which could give it a bigger impact on nominee choices of the two main parties.

Given early voting then expect a lot of the earlier attention to be on the West Coast rather than Iowa and New Hampshire.

The assumption is that Trump’s base will stick with him but that he needs a much broader range of support to ensure he gets a second term. The betdata.io chart above shows how the betting has been moving.

We don’t know yet whether there will be a serious challenge to the Republican nomination. A lot depends on how the President comes out of the wide range of investigations that are currently probing a range Trump based activities.

Generally sitting presidents get re-elected. Could Trump be the exception to that rule?

Mike Smithson