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Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

January 4th, 2019

Expect fewer caucuses & big states coming earlier

As we look towards 2020 for the next White House Race leading figures within the Democratic party are ready to follow Elizabeth Warren and put their hats into the ring in the battle to be the nominee.

Although the primaries will start off, as usual, with the caucasus in Iowa and the full primary in New Hampshire the overall structure is going to be very different this time which could effect the outcome- something thsat punters should be aware of.

    The biggest change is that the 2 largest states, Texas and California, are going to be making their selections on March 3rd which is much earlier than usual. Whoever is the front-runner on March 4th next year looks set to be in a powerful position.

Given that these two states alone will be selecting nearly a fifth of all the delegates then that day is going to be pretty decisive in determining who will be the party’s flag carrier. Interestingly two favourites in the betting for the nomination are come from California and Texas we can expect them to perform well in their home states. They are Senator Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke over who made a name for himself in November trying to unseat Senator Cruz.

A factor in California and Texas is that early voting is common and it is likely that the first votes cast there will happen before the Iowa caucuses so that is going to mean a very different campaign schedule for those who put their hats into the ring. When normally contenders would have been scrapping it out in Iowa and New Hampshire they are going to have to factor in regular trip to California and Texas.

The other big change is that there are going to be at least 4 fewer caucus states where there’s no formal election but decisions are made at party meetings. Nebraska, Idaho, Minnesota and Colorado have decided to switch to full primaries to work out how many delegates should be allocated to each of the contenders.

Back in 2016 Bernie Sanders won 12 of the 18 caucus States compared with just 11 of the 39 full primary states.

I’m on Harris at 66/1 and O’Rourke at 27/1.

Mike Smithson