h1

Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

January 7th, 2019

Corbyn needs CON converts which isn’t happening

The main objective of Labour, we are told, during this period of extreme uncertainty over Brexit is to secure an early General Election. To do that it will need to win enough backing for a confidence motion that defeats the government that is not rescinded within two weeks.

The MP totals for each party make that very difficult except if some means can be created for the DUP’s 10 MPs to back Labour on the confidence vote.

My guess is that the long-standing antagonism of the DUP towards Corbyn’s approach to Northern Ireland is going to make it very hard for them to join a move that causes an election and a possible Corbyn government.

One interesting theory that was going round over the weekend was that LAB MPs would abstain when Theresa May’s EU deal finally gets put to the Commons thus ensuring that the UK leaves the EU on March 29th. Those developing the theory hope that this would encourage the DUP to back an early election move.

Even assuming we get to the point where the country is going to vote in a 2019 general election there is not a lot to suggest that LAB is in a position to gain enough seats to come out as top party. The party’s gains in 2017 were down to non-voters actually turning out and anti-Brexit tactical voting.

    What we didn’t see then and are unlikely to see now is evidence of many CON voters switching to LAB. However split on Brexit the Tories might be that is not causing blue to red voting moves.

Also there’s be zero sign of any LAB recovery in Scotland and some recent projections have them losing to the SNP almost all of the seats gained at GE2017. There’s another factor that hasn’t been discussed – oldie turnout numbers returning to GE2015 levels which will very much reinforce the CON vote.

So GE2019, if it happens, is not going to be a piece of cake for Labour.

Mike Smithson