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Brexit looks set to be the biggest non-election political betting even market ever

January 22nd, 2019

Lots of bookies of different sorts have ranges of markets on Brexit from PaddyPower’s “What foodstuffs will be rationed first in 2019?” to the above bet on whether or not the UK will leave the EU on March 29th.

What’s been very striking is the level of activity which is building up sharply as we get closer to the date. The Betfair exchange is just about the only one which publishes in real time how much has been agreed on every single market. There is no public information about other bookmakers.

    What we do know is that the Betfair market above has seen nearly £1.6m traded overall with just under half that being in the last seven days. Given it won’t be resolved for two months this is an incredible level of betting which my guess is being replicated across the industry.

I cannot recall any other non-election related betting which has seen these activity levels.

Another interesting market is this one where we are nearing crossover in the which will happen first – Brexit or TMay leaving. Charts, usual, from Betdata.io.

And then, of course, PaddyPower has this.

Mike Smithson