h1

“TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the which’ll happen first betting market

January 28th, 2019

This Betfair exchange market is one of of my current favourites because it combines what is overwhelmingly the big UK political issue for many years, Brexit, with the future of TMay.

    On the face of it the UK actually leaving the EU appears a better bet to happen first than TMay stepping aside. For before Christmas she got immunity for a year after surviving the confidence vote amongst CON MPs.

    This compares with the UK’s EU exit date being enshrined in law as being March 29th. Maybe the Commons this week will make moves to change the law but that is far from certain.

Giving what we know of TMay is that she she is extremely resilient and it is hard to see her standing down in the short to medium term unless she is absolutely forced to.

Brexit, of course, is a unique matter because of the scale of the constitutional change and the struggle that the PM has had in getting anything through the Commons. Everything seems to get rejected and nothing appears to be able to command the support of a majority of the whole house.

The latter might just change if one of the amendments being voted on tomorrow night gets through.

There are two forces at work here: the LAB leadership which has been very reluctant to do anything that impedes Brexit in spite of the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters at the last election are opposed to it. The other factor is Moggsy’s ERG group of CON who seem to want a No Deal Brexit.

I think Brexit will happen before TMay goes.

Mike Smithson