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Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

January 30th, 2019

Overnight I have been amongst a number of punters betting on the Betfair Brexit market that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29th.

The Tweet exchange at the top between Phil Collins of the Times and YouGov’s Marcus Roberts sums up simply the reasoning. Essentially TMay’s long term strategy of getting her deal through could succeed because it becomes the only option on the table.

Her trip to Brussels is not likely to produce the change that the ERG were seeking but she was seen to have acknowledged their argument and was at least trying.

As the Betdata.io chart shows the punters had pushed the chances of the March 29th date being met down to a 18% chance late yesterday afternoon. Then, as the impact of the series of Commons votes was assimilated, the price edged up to 28% where, in my view, it remains value

The great thing about exchange betting on a busy liquid market like this is that you can change your position quickly if you see things moving.

Me suggesting that a bet is good value is NOT making a prediction. I am just looking at the odds available and assessing whether what's being offered is better than my assessment of the chances.

Mike Smithson