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Month: January 2019

Trump facing right-wing backlash for caving in on the shut down

Trump facing right-wing backlash for caving in on the shut down

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Suddenly Trump finds himself under attack from those his loudest backers. Coulter blasts Trump over shutdown deal: 'Biggest wimp ever to serve as president' | TheHill https://t.co/TPOXnHh9tA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2019 Yesterday has raised doubts over his WH2020 bid My biggest long-term bet for a long time has been that Trump will will not be his party’s nominee at WH2020. This has been my Mueller collusion probe bet on the basis that at some stage there’d be…

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Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

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Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…

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Nancy Pelosi 1 Donald Trump 0

Nancy Pelosi 1 Donald Trump 0

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Donald Trump has just announced that the Government shutdown is over. This means that the 800k government workers who have not been paid since before Christmas will now be paid. He’s agreed a 3 week period and is clearly hoping that he can get agreement on the funding of his wall. This comes on the day that the shutdown was starting to impact seriously on US civil flights with New York’s Le Guardia airport amongst others being affected. The shutdown…

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FBI officers in Florida make pre-dawn raid to arrest Trump associate Roger Stone

FBI officers in Florida make pre-dawn raid to arrest Trump associate Roger Stone

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“FBI. Open the door.” Watch exclusive CNN footage of the FBI arresting longtime Trump associate Roger Stone. Stone has been indicted by a grand jury on charges brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. https://t.co/IWQToxEDhG pic.twitter.com/qXDtpL8pjN — New Day (@NewDay) January 25, 2019 This is all getting very close to the President The big news this lunchtime which could have big implications for WH2020 and Donald Trump is that his long-standing associate, Roger Stone, has been arrested by the FBI in…

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Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

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Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum. Says delaying article 50 would remove the "ticking clock"; "If you take that away, people will keep promoting their preferred outcome rather than seeking compromise" — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) January 25, 2019 And why for some No deal is so appealing Good by @TomKibasi from Tues on why no-deal Brexit is so attractive https://t.co/f1OLa7znVd pic.twitter.com/8izswk4wNN — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 25, 2019 Mike…

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Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

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Brexit betting round-up Betting continues to be running at a high level on all aspects relating to Brexit. Mostly of the markets have stayed pretty consistent over the past few days days. The only one to buck this trend has been the second referendum betting. The chart shows how this is shifted down and this and, undoubtedly, has been affected by the latest reported positioning of Mr Corbyn about what Labour would or would not do. However much the polls…

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Meanwhile in other news

Meanwhile in other news

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More than 175,000 jobs will be lost from struggling high street stores over the next year as the boom in internet shopping hastens their decline, researchers predict https://t.co/NvhwLmDTW3 — The Times (@thetimes) January 22, 2019 What’s happening on the High Street & other developments This month, the newspapers, television, radio and social media have been consumed by Brexit. You might have noticed. In other news, Marks & Spencer have announced the closure of another 17 branches. Patisserie Valerie has gone…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at polling around a no-deal Brexit to see if commentators suggesting that it is the most popular outcome with the public are right. Also featured on this week’s show is a new report by UK in a Changing Europe, which covers a host of topics on Brexit including support for a second referendum and how Brexit identity appears to be trumping party identity. You can find the report here. Listen…

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