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The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task

February 6th, 2019

It is extraordinary that nearly 32 months have passed since the Brexit referendum and still it is not clear what Leave actually means. A large part the problem, of course, is that unlike a government that is returned to power with a manifesto, those charged with implementing the referendum outcome are not the same as those who fought it.

A total of 17.4 million people might have voted Leave but that only amounted to 51.9% and it is hard to see quite what the outcome actually means even at this late stage.

    I offer no words of wisdom on this except that if we do leave in whatever form a lot of people will feel that their expectations have not been met and that will be a dominant feature of British politics in the years to come.

Assuming, and there can be no certainty here, that an exit does take place then the post-Brexit phase looks to be as politically turbulent. It is very hard to predict the next two months never mind the next five years.

When I want to cheer myself up I think that this could all be like the “Millenium bug” that so dominated the news ahead of 1999 move to the year 2000. In the run up there was scare story after scare story which all, as it turned out, failed to materialise.

The latest Betfair betting has it as just a 26% chance that we will leave on March 29th as planned. My money at the moment is on it happening. TMay seems doggedly determined to stick to the timetable.

Mike Smithson