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A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

February 7th, 2019


Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

Corbyn’s strategy shift seems to being having an impact

One of the most volatile current political betting markets is on the year of the next general election. This is ultra-sensitive , clearly , in a situation like at the moment where the governing party does not have a majority and is totally divided on the big issue of the day.

This was accentuated by the main Labour strategy being to use TMay’s plight and the Article 50 deadline to use its position to go for an early general election rather than, say, a second referendum on Brexit.

The fervour of the Labour approach appears to have waned partly, I’d suggest by the relatively poor poll ratings for the party and its leader. Corbyn & co are clearly ultra keen to avoid being blamed for Brexit.

TMay’s “confidence and supply” partners, the DUP, have been using their position to exert the maximum leverage but my guess is that will be tempered by not taking any action that could risk Corbyn becoming PM. The Labour leader’s positioning during “the Troubles” is still remembered in Northern Ireland.

Betting on a 2019 reached nearly touched a 50% chance following initial reaction to Mrs May’s deal for which she struggles, still, to win the blessing of the Commons.

Having followed these markets closely for decades the general rule is that punters are more likely to overstate the chances on an early general election. This is one where generally the best betting option is to lay.

Mike Smithson