h1

The great Brexiters gamble – go with TMay’s deal or risking Brexit not happening at all

February 13th, 2019


Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

There’s an intriguing piece in the FT by George Parker and Henry Mance about an overheard conversation in Brussels by TMay’s Chief Negotiator, Olly Robbins which set out a different approach to put pressure on the hardliners.

Apparently they will be told – back the deal or risk a lengthy delay during which anything could happen. That broadly replaces what had appeared to be the strategy of making the choice between what’s on the table and a no deal Brexit.

In many ways the new Robbins approach seems stronger. The hardliners were probably ready to risk a no deal but putting the whole Brexit project at risk is a different matter. Half a loaf, as the old saying goes, is better than none.

Meanwhile as the chart shows there been a movement to Brexit happening on schedule although failing to meet the deadline is still the strong favourite.

Mike Smithson