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Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit is delayed and/or revoked and it is all thanks to the ERG

March 12th, 2019

Cartoon by Marf

I’ve been betting on the assumption of leaving the EU at the end of the month with No Deal for quite some time for the following reasons

Brexit: It’s the law that we exit on the 29th of March 2019

No matter how many times MPs vote to say they are opposed to No Deal they need to pass primary legislation to stop No Dea and I think they’ve run out of time to do so.

Donkeys led by donkeys

Whether you’re a supporter of Remain or Leave few will disagree that the whole Brexit process has shown our political class lacking in nous or a modicum of common sense. As I noted above far too many MPs think they can stop No Deal just like that, but they aren’t the only idiots in Parliament.

I’ve lost count of the number of MPs who think we get a transition period even if we left with No Deal or think the transition deal is the future trading agreement. Don’t even get me started on those MPs who get tumescent at the prospect of moving to WTO.

I don’t think MPs couldn’t find a cup of water if you dropped them in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Asking them to prevent a No Deal Brexit seems a challenge beyond them.

The fact they are led by Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t inspire confidence either, particularly as many of us consider Corbyn ambivalent on Brexit as opposed to the passionate pro Europeanism of recent Labour leaders.

Revocation requires balls

I don’t think MPs have the balls to do so, because a long extension to Article 50 seems unlikely because of the European Parliament elections. Whether you agree with Brexit or not, the country voted for Brexit, just imagine if you’re a Remainer and Remain had won in 2016 and Parliament decided to Leave the EU, you’d be furious.

Sadly I think Revocation leads to violence and deplorables getting elected Parliament. UKIP might see Tommy Robinson and his ilk elected as MPs after revocation.

Some MPs might say the 2016 result was superseded when Mrs May asked for a large majority to implement her Red Lines on Brexit and the country took away the majority she had inherited from David Cameron.

MPs might take my view that the best way to cure British euroscepticism is to experience a No Deal Brexit which would destroy the credibility of so many Leavers and lead us to rejoin the EU within the next decade or so.

Something has changed though so I need to review my betting position.

Theresa May’s decision to hold a free vote makes it likely that MPs take No Deal off the table and once the inevitability of Brexit happening is removed then you can see how it not happens.

I now suspect Parliament will eventually send it back to the people and game it so Remain wins, such as ensuring EU citizens and 16 & 17 year olds are allowed to vote in the referendum.

By describing it as more democracy they could argue that they weren’t overturning democracy but honouring the 2016 referendum, after all Vote Leave said many times we wouldn’t be Leaving without a deal. 

As David Davis said “If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy.”

Thanks to the ERG suffering prematurely ejection last December their ability to remove Mrs May is limited until December 2019, they’d probably have to No Confidence their own government which I think will lead to a general election which sees the Tory party pummelled as there’s no manifesto that will allow the the disparate wings of the party to unite behind. Heck even the front men of Vote Leave Michael Gove and Boris Johnson cannot agree on whether Mrs May’s deal is acceptable or not.

So if we get No Brexit we should give thanks to the ERG.

I said back in 2016 that many Tory Leavers really didn’t believe in Brexit, they only backed Leave as they thought it would help the leadership/career prospects and weren’t expecting Leave to win, by voting against the deal it is their way of stopping something they don’t believe in but allows them to look good to Leavers in the membership.

TSE

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