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In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

March 14th, 2019


Betdata.io. chart based on Betfair exchange

How punters are seeing the dramatic Brexit moves

Given the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit it is understandable why an early General Election is relatively highly rated by punters. The chart above shows the betting over the past 6 months and although 2019 has been quite a bit higher, at 45%, it still retains its position as favourite even at 37%.

Under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the next election is due to take place in 2022 to and inevitably that retains its position as a second favourite.

The next few days up to the March 29th article 50 deadline could be crucial and we could see anything happening before Brexit itself.

One inhibiting factor, surely, is Theresa May herself. She got badly burnt two years ago by calling an election early when she ended up losing the party its overall Commons majority. If it hadn’t been for her call on going in 2017 then there would not have been the need to rely on the DUP that we see at the moment.

It’s also clear that the Conservative Party is ready to put up with Theresa May while Brexit continues to be a dominating issue but once that’s resolved the support she’s likely to get from her fellow MPs will surely decline. They don’t want her to lead the Tories at the next general election something that she conceded in the confidence move against her in December.

Theresa has been helped, of course, by the fact that there is no obvious successor and although Boris Johnson is currently the favourite he’s not had odds above 20% since that weekend after the general election in 2017.

If Corbyn’s LAB remains in the polling doldrums you could see TMay’s successor being very tempted to underpin his/her position with an early general election.

Mike Smithson