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More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

March 29th, 2019

And a “helpful” intervention from Osbo

I’m sitting on a number of bets on by March 30th in Betfair’s “When will House of Commons pass Brexit vote?” market which I’ve broadly written off and this is now rated as a 12% chance.

Clearly it is not going to go TMay’s way and her whole strategy of getting it carried by taking the MPs right to the precipice looks as though it will fail.

The question will be the margin and clearly that looks as though it will be better for her than her previous two attempts to get backing. Will she try again? Maybe she has shown remarkable tenacity over this though you do think she might have done better with a touch more flexibility.

So assuming it goes down then what Next week could see moves to produce a lighter Brexit or revive the second referendum option which did reasonably well in the indicative votes on Wednesday.

I long for the time when a whole day can go by on PB when Brexit is not mentioned. I think that’s a long time off.

Mike Smithson