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The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets

April 11th, 2019

Still the same stalemate but now with added time

A quick look across the Brexit related betting markets suggest that there has been relatively little movement given the developments last night. That might be because Theresa May didn’t get her very short extension and neither did the EU leadership get their longer one.

A no-deal Brexit now rated at a 14% chance which is barely changed. That UK will hold EU elections in May is up 3% to 95% but that is very little movement.

The Betfair brexit date market for the July to December 2019 is option up a couple of percent to 36% while we will article 50 be revoked betting now a 28% chance down from about 30%

This year 2019 still the favourite to be the Year of the next general election but that’s down a couple of percent to 37%. It is now rated at an 81% chance that Theresa May will finally quit during 2019 but this is wobbling a bit but still in a range of just 5%.

The big question is whether a fourth attempt to get her deal through the Commons will be successful. It is hard to see the votes changing.

Mike Smithson