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The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

April 13th, 2019

Wikipedia

With, unless there’s deal with the EU before then, Euro elections taking place in the UK on May 23rd we are going to get a lot of polling on the elections that few expected to take place.

As can be seen in 2074 the Tory share barely varied in the final three weeks while UKIP, then with Nigel Farage, bounced round quite a lot. A few polls had LAB ahead but the majority pointed to a victory for the purples.

This is a much more difficult election to poll than general elections. Overall turnout was 35.6%  five years ago which is little more than half what happens at general elections and assessing turnout is a huge challenge for pollsters.

Also five years ago in large parts of the UK the Euro election took place at the same time as local elections which helps the turnout level.

Mike Smithson