LAB might have leads of upto 9% in the polls but punters still make it neck and neck for the next general election

April 15th, 2019

On Betfair both CON & LAB are 47% chances to win most seats

This does not happen very often but we are in a phase where the betting markets are out of line with the polls when it comes to the next general election.

As the heading suggests CON & LAB running neck and neck when it comes to most seats. The polling, as we know, has been dire for the blue team in the last week or so and the last two polls have leads of 7% and 9%.

There’s a view, obviously, that this Parliament could still run its full course and that will mean another three years and two months before a general election. There’s also the issue that LAB might have these margins in the GB as a whole but in Scotland it is still struggling badly in a part of the UK where it used to have 41 of the 59 seats. I still don’t believe that Labour can return to power without change in its Scottish fortunes.

Much of the Tory trouble at the moment is due to the ongoing splits in the party over the EU and has little to do with LAB which continues to have a leader who has a dire personal ratings. True this weekend saw Opinium has TMay with net her worst net approval numbers, minus 34%, ever but Corbyn is on -33%. Hardly much hope there.

We are also just 16 days away from this year’s local elections in England where the Tories are defending 4k seats most of which were last fought on general election day in 2015 when Cameron’s Tories far exceeded expectations. Losing several hundred councillors is going to have an impact.

The final thing about the next general election is that TMay is not likely to be leading her party and the blue team might have a less electorally toxic leader.

Mike Smithson