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The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections

April 23rd, 2019

Down 15-20 on the Tory GE2017 election outcome

To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mess as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later.

Although the polls in the table above are strictly about the next general election they probably give a good pointer to fact that it is going to be a struggle for the blue team especially as we’re getting all these reports of significant part of the Conservative General Election vote from last time now saying that it will be voting for Farage brexit party.

There is little doubt that the locals will see the Tories losing a lot of council seats and the interesting question is which party will be the big gainer. ChangeUK has hardly put up any candidates and Lib Dems and Greens are working hard, sometimes quite closely together, and that could prove very promising for them.

Whether the parliamentary Conservative Party is able to change the rules to allow a further challenge to Theresa May is hard to say. But there’s little doubt that if her party has big losses on May 2nd then that will make it extremely difficult for her. The real surprise, of course, was that Tory MPs allowed her to carry on in the June 2017 after TMay into an unnecessary General Election with a majority and ended up without a majority. She’s really been on borrowed time since then.

Mike Smithson