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If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

May 10th, 2019


Wikipedia

Over the last couple of days there been the first post local elections polls on the May 23rd Euro elections. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table the Brexit party is staying pretty stable in pole position with the Labour Party about 3% behind and the Tories much further down.

In fact the latest Opinium poll has the Tories on 14% with the Lib Dems up 5 on 12%. It was always going to be, though, that the Tories were going to take a hiding in these elections. Remember in 2014 when Farage’s then party, Ukip, party came top and the Tories were pushed into third place. They are still maintaining that position on the latest polls but the Lib Dems are moving up quite sharpish.

This is one of those elections when the polls might have some impact on how people vote. This might boost The Brexit Party and if the LD upwards movement continues could help them

What the yellows will be hoping to do is establish themselves as the party of remain with the hope of squeezing LAB, CON, GRN and  CHUK voters. We’ll see.

The betting is getting livelier and is likely to increase quite sharply as we get closer to polling day.

I have 32 pence of the LDs at 990/1 on Betfair to be top party. That’s now moved in sharpish but I am still expecting to lose my stake!

Mike Smithson