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Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

May 12th, 2019

Why David Cameron & Theresa May might soon be seen as the modern day H.H. Asquith & David Lloyd George

My first instinct to the Guardian story was this is expectations management by the Conservatives, I mean really the Conservatives finishing sixth in a nationwide election? But then I realised the evidence being used here were the arguments I made last month on the Conservatives polling 10% or lower in this election.

Last night’s polling indicated Brexit has the potential to do to the Conservative Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party so perhaps the briefings by Conservative officials to the Guardian were accurate, which brings me to the market by Ladbrokes on the Conservative finishing position (based on vote share) in the European elections which the latest polling has the Conservatives in fourth place.

Now I’m not going to bet on this market as I think my bet on the Conservatives polling sub 10% in these elections is a pretty good proxy for them finishing fourth or lower. However if I didn’t have that bet I’d be tempted to the 6/1 on the Conservatives finishing fifth.

It is clear the Conservative vote is in freefall, whilst the Brexit Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens are in the ascendancy, latter two as evidenced in the local elections, whilst Labour’s core vote appears to be more solid than the Conservative core vote so it isn’t hard to visualise the Conservatives finishing fifth.

TSE