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It is now an 91% chance that TMay will be out this year

May 13th, 2019


From Betdata.io chart of Betfair market

Aside from the Euro elections next week the other big UK political betting market which has seen a lot of activity is on the date when TMay will finally step aside. After the local elections two weeks ago and the impending disaster for her party a week on Thursday this surely will be the moment when she finally runs out of time.

Yet will she? One thing we know is that she isn’t going of her own accord. She will have to be forced out and until now her party colleagues have never had the bottle to force the issue.

The confusing part about all of this is that there have been so many false alarms before. At one stage I was counting the number of front page stories in the national press which were predicting Theresa May’s imminent political demise and they were all proved wrong.

TMay has made her total mission in life over the past three year to implement the 2016 referendum and she hasn’t given up.

Her resolve and determination to achieve the goal runs so deep that you cannot judge her by other political leaders. She’s suffered commons revolt after commons revolt with the worst votes ever against a government ever but she has stuck to her task.

I certainly would not bet on her going this year at current odds.

Mike Smithson