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The CON-LAB polling misery continues

May 13th, 2019

New London poll finds BRX/LD/GRN rising while the big two slump

We are now getting to the stage ahead of the Euro elections next week when voters start to think about what they will do. These, as have been remarked upon many times, have historically been a strange set of elections with normal allegiances apparently going to the wind

The YouGov London poll, carried out for QMUL, is extra interesting because, clearly, London is the most remain part of the UK. Even so Farage’s Brexit party is doing well and appears to be eating into both the Conservatives and Labour shares.

The Lib Dem numbers look very encouraging for Vince Cable in what will be his final set of elections as LD party leader. I would expect over the next few days that they will be putting a big squeeze on the other anti-brexit parties supporters as well as remain backers who are CON and LAB. This is an area where the party has good expertise. A particular target will be the Green vote.

I’ve had a couple of Euro bets this lunchtime with Ladbrokes. One, at 7/2 is that the Lib Dems will finish up with the most number of votes in the London. The other at 2/1 is that the turnout will be in the 30% to 40% range.

A big unknown at the moment it’s whether or not the government can turn things around at Westminster and get some sort of agreement from MPs. The problem for strong leavers is that their opposition to Theresa May’s deal may put in jeopardy the whole idea of leaving the EU. What we’re witnessing is a gigantic game of chicken.

Mike Smithson