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The top pollster from the 2014 Euros now has LAB in third place six points behind the LDs

May 22nd, 2019

“Bollocks to Brexit” not harming the LDs

Throughout the Euros campaign one pollster has been producing very different numbers from just about everybody else. That is YouGov which in its survey for the Times this morning finds that the Brexit party is on 37% with the Lib Dems on 19 and labour six points behind that on 13.

Almost all the other firms have LAB maintaining a second place position and lower numbers for TBP. It is highly likely we will see the finals polls today from other firms and these might indicate a level of clustering.

As I pointed out a couple of days ago at the 2014 euros the pollster that got it most right then was YouGov.

Now you cannot assume that just because a firm did well last time that they are likely to be the most accurate this time. ComRes did very well at GE2015 but was one of the worst at GE2017.

Because this is likely to be a low turnout election compared to the referendum or general elections then that adds to the challenge facing those carrying out polling surveys. The critical thing is to ensure that those you can identify as being voters are given greater weight than those who from past experience are less likely to participate.

In his excellent analysis on Monday Sunil showed how turnout at Euro elections has been relatively constant in the 30s region except at 1999 when the closed regiinoal party list came in and it dropped to 24%. Those were the last Euro elections, however, to be held without local elections taking place on the same day.

The problem for both LAB and CON tomorrow is that neither is seen as the lead party for or against Brexit. TBP has well established itself amongst the supporters while the LDs have used their success in the local three weeks ago to reinforce their pitch the be the strongest party for Remain.

We’ll have to wait till Sunday from 2200 BST to find out what’s actually happened.

Mike Smithson