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Month: May 2019

The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

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East of England, vote share: Brex: 37.8% (+37.8)LDem: 22.6% (+15.7)Grn: 12.7% (+4.2)Con: 10.2% (-18.2)Lab: 8.7% (-8.6)ChUK: 3.7% (+3.7)UKIP: 3.4% (-31.1) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 26, 2019 There are just over 100,000 Labour Party members in London, which is 20% of Labour’s total London vote. pic.twitter.com/PWEtJI72hC — Tom Hamilton (@thhamilton) May 26, 2019 Lib Dems get a huge symbolic win in Corbyn's Islington https://t.co/d9Djsm968N — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) May 26, 2019 The Conservatives are on course to win their lowest…

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Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

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D'Hondt rush to judgment on the Euros results. You shouldn't read too much into an election with a turnout of circa 40%. Plus votes rather than seats matter in the grand scheme of things, especially under D'Hondt. — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2019 Early days. But these results are turning into Corbyn's biggest nightmare. Northern Labour voters turning to Brexit Party. London and Southern Labour voters turning to Lib Dems. By appealing to everyone he's appealed to no-one. — (((Dan…

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Maastricht Redux

Maastricht Redux

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Once upon a time there was a stubborn female PM annoying the hell out of her colleagues. A junior Minister was even overheard calling her “a cow” and wishing she would resign. She was determinedly pursuing and arguing for an initially popular pledge – abolition of the rates – by means of a ferociously unpopular policy: the poll tax. No-one was convinced. Tory MPs looked nervously at their majorities, their annoyed constituents and wondered why she would not listen. A…

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Remembering the time Boris Johnson implied Tory defectors to Farage’s party are the kind of people who have sex with vacuum cleaners

Remembering the time Boris Johnson implied Tory defectors to Farage’s party are the kind of people who have sex with vacuum cleaners

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If as anticipated the Brexit party wins the European elections well ahead of the Conservatives then I expect the discussion will move towards who will be best placed to win the support of the Brexit Party’s voters and many will say Boris Johnson but that will be a mistake, here’s why. Nigel Farage would ruthlessly exploit the past comments of Boris, for example the pre referendum comments by Boris Johnson about ‘support[ing] a second referendum on Britain’s relationship with the…

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Tory MP declarations of leadership contest support should be treated with a huge pinch of salt

Tory MP declarations of leadership contest support should be treated with a huge pinch of salt

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange In 2005 DDavis had more public MPs supporters than actual voters Just a day after Theresa May’s announcement that she is stepping down as CON leader and prime minister and even though it is a bank holiday weekend the fight for the succession has begun. The first stage is the MP ballots to decide which two names will actually go to the membership in the postal election. Ahead of these we get…

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You think things are bad now?

You think things are bad now?

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A glimpse into the next four years (maybe) Jess Philips had been to Number Ten before but not like this. Not in front of the microphones. Not at the centre of attention. Not as Prime Minister. Yet Prime Minister she was, newly returned from the Palace where the king had asked her to form a government and she’d said yes. Of course she had: for the first time in over a decade, Britain had a clear majority government. For the…

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The Euro elections – what we know about turnout local authority by local authority

The Euro elections – what we know about turnout local authority by local authority

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Final table for a few hours. 132 councils with their 2016 remain %. Sorted by the increase in turnout yesterday compared to last euros. pic.twitter.com/kXxO1jhawa — Patrick Heneghan (@PJHeneghan) May 24, 2019 This is a very useful piece of work and will be invaluable on Sunday night when the results come in. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Johnson now evens to succeed TMay as PM

Johnson now evens to succeed TMay as PM

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange But will he suffer the Tory front-runner curse? This morning’s announcement by Mrs May that she is Stepping down did not come as a surprise and indeed there has been a lot of activity over her replacement over the past few weeks. On Betfair, the betting exchange where it is punters exchanging bets between themselves not the bookmakers who fix the odds, the former Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London is now…

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