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If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have its third MP in two years all from different parties

June 5th, 2019


Brexit party leaflet Peterborough

The Westminster by-election in Peterborough has become an intriguing contest with three and perhaps four possibilities of which party will be the winner.

It was CON until June 2017 when it became a shock LAB gain with the winner losing her seat in May after the first successful use of the new recall procedure.

Now LAB is batting to hold on against Farage’s new Brexit party which came out top in the Euros there on May 23rd.

Although everybody describes it as a Leave seat just under 40% still voted remain in the referendum in July 2016 and, of course, there has been demographic change since.

A big question is over the turnout tomorrow. Will the voters of Peterborough be less inclined to go to the polling stations once again for their second election in a fortnight? If there is a low turnout who will benefit?.

Labour has not been helped by the suggestions of anti-semitism against their candidate and Corbyn’s ambivalence on Brexit.  The Lib Dems are currently riding the crest of a wave  following their successes in the locals at the start of May and in the Euros where they came ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives nationally.

The Brexit Party tactic, as seen in the leaflet at the top, has been to try to split the LAB vote by peeling away some of the remain support to the Lib Dems. When that leaflet cover  was published on Twitter people were suggesting that this was actually a Lib Dem rather than a Brexit party publication

The best bet I can see is the 11/4 currently on offer at Ladbrokes on the LDs  getting 20%-30%. I’m not as confident as I was about the LDs winning London in the Euros a couple of weeks ago – a bet which I know many PBers profited from. Peterborough  is a big ask but the odds make it a value bet.

Mike Smithson