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WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a woman

June 28th, 2019

A look at the Presidential gender betting

Over the past couple of nights we had the first tv debates of the battle in the Democratic party to secure the nomination for next year’s White House election to come up presumably against Donald Trump .

One factor that is very striking is that the two contenders who most stood out were women. They are Senators Elizabeth Warren (16% on Betfair) of Massachusetts, clear victor on Wednesday evening, and Kamala Harris (25% Betfair favourite) of California who took the accolades on Thursday.

We haven’t seen yet any serious post debate polling on how potential primary voters view the race now but it is apparent that Senators Harris and Warren are the ones to beat. Overnight the ageing duo of Jo Biden and Bernie Sanders, both in their late 70s, failed to come across effectively and it is much harder to see either going all the way to the convention next year when the nominee will be confirmed.

Until this point one betting market that I haven’t highlighted before is on the gender of the next President. On Betfair it is about a 25% chance that the next occupant of the White House will be female and that looks a very tempting price given the current dominance of Harris and Warren.

A bet on the WH2020 winner being female would also cover you for two other women senators in the field as well as Oprah Winfrey who is being enthusiastically supported by late night TV host Bill Maher. There’s been no indication that she is interested.

Mike Smithson