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Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26

July 5th, 2019

Get ready for PM Johnson

One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times.

So tonight’s news in the Times that Johnson is ahead by 74-26 leaves us in little doubt about the outcome. That margin is overwhelming.

A new question might be whether he actually gets the keys of Number 10 if his election actually leads to a few prominent CON MPs quitting the party and threatening to vote against him in a Commons no confidence move.

The betting is swinging even further to the ex-Mayor.

Mike Smithson