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The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks good value at 7/2

July 5th, 2019

Can they top the 49.7% of Richmond Park?

Within the next hour we should get the full list of nominated candidates for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election which is due to take place on August 1st. This is to fill the vacancy created by the successful recall petition against the sitting Conservative MP, Chris Davies, who had been convicted of making fraudulent expense claims.

The big news we already know in terms of the overall outcome is that the Green Party and Plaid have decided to set step aside to give the Lib Dems a clear run amongst parties opposed to Brexit.

The betting on the by-election has so far been pretty light because the Lib Dems are 1/5 favourites and people tend not to like risking cash at this stage at such short odds. Ladbrokes, meanwhile, has put up an interesting market on the Lib Dem vote share and here there is one option that has attracted me. Its 7/2 that the party will secure more than 50% of the vote. I got on at 4/1.

This looks like a three-way fight between the LDs, the Tories, for whom Mr Davies is he standing, and the Brexit party which is hoping to carry on the momentum created at the Euro elections and then followed up with a excellent second place in the Peterborough by-election last month.

Labour, which got 17.7% at GE2017 are likely to be squeezed in the manner that the Lib Dems have in the past proved themselves able to do in by-elections when they can establish themselves as the main party to take on the Tories. Remember what happened at Richmond Park in December 2017 when the LAB vote was fewer than the Labour Party membership in the constituency?

The main factor that could impact on the bet is a good showing by the Brexit party. The question here is how much will it put into the constituency. Farage is understood to have carried out his own Survation poll and has declared that the LDs will win.

At Richmond Park in December 2017 the LDs secured 49.7% of the vote. Since then their national polling numbers have moved toward and sometimes ahead of 20%.

As I always say bets are not prediction but statements of value. Do you consider the chances of something happening being greater than the odds.

Mike Smithson