h1

Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

July 8th, 2019

Who knows – the party could be choosing a future PM?

So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site.

Meanwhile there’s what’s described as an “informal survey” of LD members that got the last contested election in 2015 to within two points has just been published. It has Jo Swinson beating Ed Davey by 54% to 46%.

The “poll” has been carried out by “Harry’s Blog” and has sought to weight the findings by the party membership demographics from Tim Bale’s QMUL party leaders project. The report notes:

“Men appear to be voting overwhelmingly for Jo Swinson, with 62% of them joining Jo, and only 38% going wavy for Davey. Women, on the other hand, are splitting in the opposite direction, contrary to what many expected at the beginning of this campaign. 57% of them are voting for Ed, while 43% of them are voting for Jo.

The other trend to note is one of age. A whopping 68% of 18-24 year olds say they will be voting for Jo Swinson … and,a massive 78% of those over 65 say they will vote for Ed Davey – which could be crucial, as over 65s make up the largest proportion of the party’s membership.”

On Betfair Jo Swinson is currently an 81% chance.

As regular PBers will know I have been a member since the party’s foundation in the late 1980s and have participated in every single leadership ballot. My record is not very good and my first choice on the ballot has NEVER been the eventual winner. So I have bet on the contender who didn’t get my vote.

Make of that what you will.

Mike Smithson