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New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

July 9th, 2019

 

Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote?

Figures with undecideds and refused excluded:
CON 23%
LD 23%
BREX 21%
LAB: 17%
GRN: 8%

But there’s the possibility of success after Brexit happens

Scenario 2: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year after Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote?

Figures with undecideds and refused excluded:
CON 28%
LD 20%
BREX 14%
LAB 17%
GRN 9%

The polling was carried out by YouGov on Sunday and Monday for the Britain Elects website. Essentially any possible boost for the favourite in the current leadership contests comes AFTER Brexit has been achieved.

The other notable feature in the polling is the strength and position of the LDs who by then, of course, will also have a new leader.

These latest findings go against the ComRes poll overnight that had the Tories in a position to win an overall majority of 40 with Boris at the helm. This pollster, it should be noted,  came out badly at the Euro elections overstating LAB and CON by some margin and understating the LDs and the Greens.

Mike Smithson