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In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the least attention to the campaign are backing Biden/Sanders

July 29th, 2019


Quinnipac national poll

Tomorrow night sees the second round of debates amongst those competing to be the Democratic nominee to take on Trump in the November 2020 White House race.

After the first round last month California Senator, Kamala Harris, was deemed to have done best with what was seen as a highly effective attack on the 76 year old front runner and two times White House failure, Jo Biden. As a result she moved sharply into the favourite slot in the betting a position she still holds though it is starting to get weaker.

Having tipped Harris on PB in January 2017 when she was a 66/ shot I am paying very close attention to her progress  as I know are other PBers.

What’s striking is that Biden and the 77 year old Sanders who did well at WH2016 continue to do well in the poling. But when you analyse this these oldie contenders are getting a disproportionate amount of support from those who are “paying little or no attention“. This question is a feature of all Quinnipac polls and one which takes the edge of their position in the polls.

Surely it is a reasonable assumption to make that those in the little or no attention segment are going to be less likely to participate in the primary?

In the coming primary battle a key element could be the that the biggest state of all, California, is having its primary in early March rather than June. This is from Vox on why this could be crucial. 

“Given its size and expansive media market, California is a notoriously expensive state to compete in. Unlike some other early states, outreach in the nation’s most populous state is extremely dependent on paid media, and according to some strategists, candidates will need at least $5 million to even be competitive.

This landscape is one that favors candidates that constituents already know, experts say, giving home state Sen. Kamala Harris a big leg up, along with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, both of whom have prominent national profiles.

“If she can do well in the February contests, [Harris’s] home state could be part of a potential knockout blow to the others,” Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, told Vox. “

Mike Smithson