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The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

August 9th, 2019

Time to be betting that Johnson is bluffing?

The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead.

At the moment I’m not convinced enough to bet. The huge down-side of a no deal exit, the threats to food supplies, vital medicines and to whole industries that rely on easy access in and out of the continent mean that Johnson is going to be a brave man indeed because he will be seen as the one to blame.

The plans for mass slaughters British farm animals or the threat to food supplies would put a huge pressure on the PM no matter what Cummings is saying. The run up to October 31st could see panic buying and create chaos on a scale last seen during the 2000 fuel crisis when for a brief time Hague’s Tories led against Blair’s LAB in the polls

This I believe is a negotiating tactic and the betting indicates that punters are starting to believe it. There’ll come a point when this is worth laying.

Mike Smithson