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Punters give the Tories a 67% chance of winning most seats but just a 32% one of securing a majority

August 14th, 2019


Six months chart of Betfair movements  from Betdata.io

We could be within 2 months of seeing a general election being declared and so far at least we haven’t looked at how punters are seeing the outcome. The chances in the betting on the Betfair change, where punters not bookies fix the odds, shows the movement on the Betfair Exchange over the past 6 months

As can be seen there was a stage not so long ago when LAB was the favourite to win most seats but that has moved sharply against them with the arrival of the new Tory leader and Prime Minister and to an extent a new LD leader. Also LAB has failed to have a clear position on the main issue of the day , Brexit, and this ambivalence could impact.

Also edging up a bit have been the Lib Dems following their successes at EU2019 and the  local elections and in the recent Brecon by-election. The new leader is also giving a very different image to the party and perhaps appealing to a younger generation. There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats.

Labour will always be hoping that the miracle that they saw  at GE2017 might happen again. It’s perhaps worth reminding ourselves given some of the rhetoric, did lose that election although Theresa May failed to retain the CON majority.

Even so there are big challenges for the Tories. One of those is Scotland where they now have 13 MPs but have been polling very poorly. Also the parties linked to “Unite to Remain” if that gets off the ground could hurt the Tories.

Mike Smithson