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Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit

August 14th, 2019

Not the platform surely for a no deal-based General Election?

With the October 31st deadline getting nearer and nearer all polls are being looked at closely to evaluate the gamble that Johnson would be taking if there was an Autumn UK general election.

He will be very conscious of what happened to TMay in 2017 when she had consistent double digit leads and high approval ratings. General Elections are a massive risk for an incumbent government something that has been been exacerbated by a change in the law in 2013 that imposes a 25 working day requirement for a general election campaign. Previously is was 17 days.

The longer a campaign last the more the chance of a cock-up as we saw in 2017. TMay’s “strong and stable” message was not going to sustain her throughout the campaign.

It is hard comparing Brexit questions because each pollster does it differently but I quite like the Survation approach. No doubt many of those saying they’d like to leave with a deal a former Remain voters. They just want this all over.

Mike Smithson