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Wise thoughts on how the Tories would do in a snap general election from Keiran Pedley

August 26th, 2019

Is Keiran right and we might be overstating Tory chances?

We haven’t seen Keiran Pedley of the PB/Polling Matters Podcast for a few weeks because he’s just become a father.

When I first saw the above Tweets I thought they were very pertinent. The experience of PMs who seek to hold general elections early isn’t good with TMay, whose poll ratings were far better than Johnson’s, being the most recent example.

We know from the Scotland-only polling that the Tories could suffer north of the border where they made 12 gains at GE2017. Also it is hard to evaluate the likely impact of the revived LDs who are polling at nearly three times the level of where they were at GE2017.

Also so much is uncertain over Brexit and what might happen in the Commons in the next week or so.

Mike Smithson