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If Boris Johnson hopes to win Labour seats at the general election then he needs to improve his approval ratings with GE2017 Labour voters

September 11th, 2019

The Cummings and Johnson strategy has been clear for a while, sacrifice Tory seats in Scotland and Remain leaning seats elsewhere whilst winning a lot of Labour held seats that vote Leave.

It is an interesting strategy that may work but looking at those numbers from the latest Opinium poll will make for sober reading for Cummings and Johnson. My own belief is that Labour voters are tribal and loyal and the jump to the Tories will not happen in volume that Cummings and Johnson need.

As a bona fide Northerner I still see and hear references from Labour voters to what they see as the evil perpetrated by Lady Thatcher. The miners’ strike is still mentioned more than 35 years after the event, usually as a reason not to vote Tory. This might explain despite all the criticisms Corbyn receives he still ‘leads’ Johnson by 40 points and we’re all aware that leader ratings are usually a better predictor of election outcomes than standard voting intention polls.

The Northern strategy might just work for all the wrong reasons, just look at how positively Jo Swinson is rated! Perhaps she can take enough votes from Labour to hand sufficient seats to the Tories by default.

I do hope some pollsters start polling these types of seats like regional polls we see, it might help give us a better indication of the situation. Labour voters in Islington and Labour voters in Barnsley might not be homogenous.

TSE