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The next general election vote shares by party betting

September 13th, 2019

Ladbrokes have markets on the GB vote shares for the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems at the next general election. I’m sitting out this market for the time being for a variety of reasons mainly to do, but not exclusively, with

  1. We’re not sure when it will be, it could be weeks or it could be years away.
  2. Nor do we know the circumstances of the election.
  3. Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition at the time of the next election. Will he really go into opposition rather than take an extension to avoid No Deal even after all the potential problems No Deal could bring as per Yellowhammer?
  4. Have we actually left the EU by the time of the next election?
  5. There could be pacts and alliances at the next election which could mess up the vote shares and consequently these bets.

However if you can spot any value let me know in the comments, right now all I can see is value for Ladbrokes and their bonus fund.

TSE