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Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the first time

September 22nd, 2019

She’s now 38% on Betfair for the nomination

Those who have followed American politics for some time will be aware that Anne Selzer polls for the Des Moines register have over the decades built up a strong reputation for accuracy in polling the Iowa Caucuses. The issue here is ensuring that samples are made up of voters who will actually participate – attending a meeting in their precinct at 7pm on the stated day. The Selzer approach seem to get this most right.

The latest poll this weekend had Warren leading with 22%, followed by Joe Biden at 20%, Sanders at 11%, Pete Buttigieg at 9%, Kamala Harris at 6%, Amy Klobuchar at 3% and Cory Booker at 3%.

Favourability figures in the poll found Buttigieg in second place ahead of Biden – an interesting pointer..

The Iowa caucuses, because they come first, have a long history of shaping the race giving the state an influence on US politics far far greater than its size would suggest.

Mike Smithson