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Once again the betting moves to the general election taking place later rather than sooner

October 2nd, 2019


Chart betdata.io

My money’s on 2020 or beyond

For those who have followed the general election timing market this has become a familiar theme. The money moves to what appears to be the first possible month and then after a short period as betting favourite time appears to be running out and so we move onto the next option.

Currently December 2019 is the favourite but apart from all the issues of holding an election in the run-up to Christmas, dark evenings, inclement weather and voters being distracted by other things in their lives I believe that whoever actually makes the decision will shy away from holding it then.

This is an area where Labour is in control and this raises another element because the party is doing relatively poorly in the polls down in some cases to barely half what the party achieved at the 2017 general election.

It is one thing acquiescing in an election date like Corbyn did in April 2017 when TMay called one and another when it is you yourself who is making the decision. There will always be reasons not to go soon particularly when the party’s fortunes don’t appear as good as they might be.

Because of the FTPA and the parliamentary arithmetic this is the first time ever in British political history that it is the the opposition leader who has the power to choose whether there should be an early General Election and he will act cautiously. Corbyn won’t want to be blamed for calling an election that could see his party lose seats.

So I’m confident in the largest bets I placed yesterday morning at 2/1 that the election will take place in 2020 or beyond. Picking up my winnings will be a nice start to to 2020.

Mike Smithson